Autism and the myth of an "epidemic" according to RFK Jr.
We dive deep into the disinformation campaign from RFK Jr's first press conference as HHS secretary.
Today, Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy Jr. held his first press conference, addressing the latest CDC Autism and Developmental Disabilities Monitoring (ADDM) Network report. What followed was a mix of emotional rhetoric, misleading claims, and a heavy dose of scientifically unsupported theories about autism spectrum disorder (ASD).
As a physician who works with families affected by autism and a public health advocate, I believe it's critical to respond with facts. Let’s break down the key claims made at this press conference—and what science actually tells us.
You can watch it here:
CLAIM #1: “Autism rates are skyrocketing. This is an epidemic.”
RFK Jr. : “Autism has increased by a factor of 4.8… that’s 480%. The ASD prevalence rate in 8-year-olds is now 1 in 31. Shocking.”
RFK Jr. cited CDC data showing that 1 in 31 8-year-olds in the United States are diagnosed with ASD, up from 1 in 36 just a few years ago. He argues this is a catastrophic increase—one that cannot be explained by anything other than environmental toxins.
The Facts:
Yes, autism diagnoses have increased—but the primary reasons are better awareness, improved screening tools, and expanded diagnostic criteria.
Much of the rise in autism prevalence is due to diagnostic substitution, earlier identification, and increased services—not a mysterious environmental plague. There are multiple studies that support this. Examples are here, here, and here.
Diagnostic Criteria for Autism has changed
RFK Jr. : “In 1987, a study in North Dakota found only 3.3 per 10,000 children had autism. Today it’s 1 in 36. That’s an 83-fold increase.”
This is highly misleading. One of the biggest misconceptions about the so-called “autism epidemic” is the idea that we are comparing apples to apples. We're not. The criteria for diagnosing autism in the 1980s were far narrower than they are today.
There has been a significant shift in the diagnostic criteria for ASD since the 1980s. In the 1980s, the DSM-III (published in 1980) was the primary diagnostic manual, which first officially recognized autism as a distinct diagnostic category. The criteria focused on three main areas: impaired social interaction, impaired communication, and restricted, repetitive behaviors and interests.
In contrast, the current DSM-5, published in 2013, has made several key changes. The DSM-5 combines the previous subcategories of autism (such as Asperger's syndrome and Pervasive Developmental Disorder-Not Otherwise Specified) into a single diagnosis of ASD. The criteria are now divided into two main domains: persistent deficits in social communication and social interaction, and restricted, repetitive patterns of behavior, interests, or activities. Additionally, the DSM-5 includes specifiers to describe the severity of the disorder and any associated conditions, such as intellectual disability or language impairment.
Earlier diagnostic criteria emphasized the requirement for language delay, which has since been removed. The DSM-5 criteria also specifies that symptoms must be present in the early developmental period but allows for the possibility that ASD may not become fully manifest until social demands exceed limited capacities.
Bottom line: Children who would not have been diagnosed in the 1980s are routinely and appropriately diagnosed today. The rise in prevalence reflects a broader, more inclusive definition—not an outbreak of disease.
CLAIM #2: “Vaccines, air, water, food, and ultrasound are potential causes. We’ll investigate.”
RFK Jr.: “We’re going to look at mold, food additives, pesticides, air, water, medicines… we’re even going to look at ultrasound.”
RFK Jr. again raised the long-debunked vaccine-autism hypothesis and promised to launch new studies into a wide array of environmental exposures.
The Facts:
Vaccines do not cause autism. This has been studied more than almost any health claim in history. Meta-analyses of millions of children across dozens of studies show no link.
Other environmental factors (like air pollution or pesticides) may be associated with autism risk in some studies, but causality is unproven, and the effect sizes are small and inconsistent.
CLAIM #3: “Genes don’t cause epidemics. Only toxins do.”
RFK Jr.: “This is a preventable disease. We know it’s an environmental exposure. Genes don’t cause epidemics.”
This is both incorrect and dangerous. It downplays well-established genetic risk and promotes speculative harm.
The Facts:
Autism is highly heritable. Twin studies show that 70–90% of the variation in autism risk is genetic. While environmental factors may play a role, they do not explain the majority of cases.
RFK’s framing falsely pits genetics against environment, when in reality, autism likely results from complex gene-environment interactions.
CLAIM #4: “If this isn’t an epidemic, where are all the older autistic adults?”
RFK Jr.: “I’m 71. Where are the people my age who are nonverbal, head-banging, toe-walking, not toilet trained? Where are they? They don’t exist.”
Kennedy claimed that if autism always existed at current rates, we’d see older adults with full-blown autism in large numbers—and we don’t.
The Facts:
Older adults with autism were often undiagnosed or misdiagnosed. Many were institutionalized, labeled with schizophrenia, or simply dismissed as “eccentric.” The idea that they didn’t exist is a myth rooted in outdated diagnostic practices.
Today’s diagnostic tools—and cultural shifts in awareness—make it easier for younger generations to be identified. That doesn’t mean older generations were unaffected.
Bottom Line
Autism is not a new phenomenon. It’s not caused by vaccines, and it’s not a “preventable disease” triggered by toxins in our environment. It is a neurodevelopmental condition with complex causes, the strongest of which are genetic. Calling ASD a “disease” stigmatizes the disease and implies that something is wrong and needs to be cured. RFK Jr’s rhetoric minimizes the strengths and identity of people living with ASD.
Instead of stoking fear or chasing conspiracy theories, our national response should focus on:
Supporting individuals with autism and their families
Improving access to evidence-based therapies
Continuing rigorous research into both genetic and environmental factors—with scientific integrity
Let’s commit to science over sensationalism, support over stigma, and truth over misinformation.
Although not required, any support is greatly appreciated.
Related to claim 4, do you think "out of sight, out of mind" is playing into older generations thinking autism rates were lower amongst their peers? Lobotomy and/or institutionalization were more common as "treatments," especially in the 1960-70s. Consequently, individuals who might receive a diagnosis of autism today were likely removed from the general population.
Thank you from a woman with Autism and ADHD diagnosed aged 50 (I only toe walk occasionally, and never head bang).